1. Europe's Crossroads: Navigating an Era of Geopolitical Uncertainty
In an era characterized by geopolitical uncertainties and shifting global dynamics, Europe finds itself grappling with an array of threats and challenges that jeopardize its long-standing stability. From the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to the erosion of democratic principles in nations like Hungary and Poland, the continent faces a complex web of internal and external pressures.
Furthermore, the looming specter of the possible re-election of Donald Trump in the United States and the perceived weakening of Germany's leadership role add additional layers of concern. Amidst these complexities, Europe is confronted with what has been termed the "Mitsotakis Syndrome", a phenomenon that reflects Europe's difficulty in competing with other major world powers.
As we delve deeper into these issues, it becomes increasingly apparent that the stability of Europe hangs in the balance, necessitating vigilant analysis and proactive measures to safeguard its future.
2. Trump's Impact on Europe: A Second Term's Potential Threats to Stability
Firstly, a potential re-election of Donald Trump in the United States carries significant implications for Europe and its stability, as recently stated by ECB’s President Christine Lagarde.
During his previous term, Trump's approach to transatlantic relations was characterized by unpredictability and a transactional mindset, often placing strain on traditional alliances. His skepticism towards NATO, coupled with his preference for bilateral deals over multilateral agreements, weakened the cohesion of the Western alliance system that has long served as a cornerstone of European security.
Furthermore, Trump's disdain for international institutions and disregard for diplomatic norms fostered an environment of uncertainty, where traditional norms of diplomacy and cooperation were upended. Trump’s sovereigntism - a stance against any reduction in national sovereignty in favor of international organizations - risked dismantling the entire framework of the world order established in the aftermath of World War II. This approach was evident in Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from major international organizations and multilateral treaties, such as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Paris Climate Agreement, the World Health Organization, the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization, the Universal Postal Union, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, among others.
Additionally, Trump's neo-liberalist and protectionist trade policies, including tariffs on European goods, exacerbated tensions and threatened the economic stability of the continent. A potential second term for Trump could prolong and deepen these trends, undermining the unity and resilience of Europe as it contends with a multitude of internal and external challenges.
Figure 1 - The risk of Trump's re-election
3. Germany's Instability: Challenges for a United Europe
The potential weakening of Germany, long considered the powerhouse of Europe, poses a significant threat to the continent's stability. As the largest economy and a key political player within the European Union, Germany's stability and leadership are integral to the functioning of the EU and the broader European project.
However, the rise of far-right movements and the challenges posed by a sluggish economy undermine Germany's traditional role as a stabilizing force. The resurgence of extreme right-wing ideologies threatens social cohesion and political consensus, eroding the values of tolerance and pluralism that underpin European unity.
Additionally, economic stagnation or downturn in Germany could reverberate throughout the EU, given the interconnectedness of European economies, potentially leading to decreased confidence, investment, and growth across the region. Furthermore, a weakened Germany may struggle to provide the leadership and resources necessary to address pressing challenges such as migration, security threats, and climate change, leaving a void in European governance and coordination.
As such, the destabilization of Germany carries far-reaching implications for the stability and resilience of Europe as a whole, necessitating concerted efforts to address internal divisions and economic vulnerabilities to safeguard the continent's future.
Figure 2 - Germany and its current challenges
4. The 'Mitsotakis Syndrome': Europe's Challenge in Presenting a Unified Front on the Global Stage
The concept of the "Mitsotakis' Syndrome" underscores a pressing challenge for Europe, particularly the European Union, in confronting global powers with a unified approach. Emerging from recent agreements between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this expression symbolizes Europe's struggle to present a cohesive front in its dealings with major global players, since individual nations continue to act autonomously.
With each EU member state represented by its own president or leader in the international stage, coordinating a unified response becomes inherently complex, especially when compared to more centralized entities like the United States, India, or even other major powers like Brazil, Russia, and China. While these countries speak and act with a unified voice on the international stage, Europe's diversity and decentralized governance model hinder its ability to do the same.
This fragmentation undermines Europe's influence and bargaining power, potentially leaving it vulnerable to exploitation and marginalization in an increasingly competitive global landscape. As such, the "Mitsotakis' Syndrome" serves as a stark reminder of the imperative for Europe to overcome internal divisions and forge a more cohesive (and, maybe, even more federal) approach to global affairs in order to safeguard its interests and maintain relevance on the world stage.
This "Mitsotakis Syndrome" becomes even more dangerous when coupled with the rise of sovereigntism, a trend spreading rapidly across Europe. It is clear that European unity and its development as a single entity are essential to prevent countries in the region from becoming fragmented and vulnerable to external forces. Without a unified approach, there's a risk that national sovereigntism could lead to chaos and leave European nations at the mercy of larger powers.
This brings us back to the risk of war mentioned earlier. The conflict in Ukraine and the clashes between Palestine and Israel have shown that we cannot afford to dismiss the possibility of seemingly unthinkable events occurring. The notion of Europe as a shield against war is now more relevant than ever. However, national sovereigntism, while it may work within a single state, is inadequate to tackle cross-border or even global challenges. For instance, in the context of climate change, while many European nations champion ecological transitions and sustainability, they often demand autonomy in choosing and applying measures to avoid harming immediate interests. This contradiction invites the EU to refrain from mandating common approaches, with some countries pointing to other regions with worse environmental records as if their failures do not ultimately impact Europe.
In matters of crucial importance, where issues are inherently supranational, relying on national sovereigntism over collective policies and strategies means choosing to remain powerless. The digital world exemplifies this—China and the United States control three-quarters of the cloud computing market, 90% of the capitalization of digital platforms, and have a dominant presence in the start-up scene. This reality leads to a form of data colonialism, where national sovereignty has little room to maneuver without embracing unified European policies. Yet, Europe is often depicted as a bureaucratic monolith that stifles individuals, with exaggerated counts of EU employees, aimed at discrediting the EU. This focus overlooks the significant data and privacy issues that require robust, unified regulation to address effectively. The same applies to the use of artificial intelligence and creating boundaries to ensure individual control.
The ongoing debate about the end of globalization might hold some truth in a geopolitical sense, but we are certainly in an era of decentralization and of inability of individual countries to address problems that are far beyond their capacity. Therefore, a strong and more cohesive Europe with common policies is not just one option among many; it is a matter of survival.
Figure 3 - States and populations: a comparison
Bibliograpyhy
- This article has been inspired by Leonardo Lamberto Scaglione and Paolo Magri’s speech at the Giornata del Giurista 2024, Bocconi University, Milan
- Arnold, M. (January 2024), Lagarde says Trump represents ‘a threat’ to Europe, Financial Times, taken from: https://www.ft.com/content/a092a2c7-bc36-407b-81a4-907532b6617d
- Redazione ANSA (February 2024), Mitsotakis: 'Grecia è la porta di ingresso a Europa per l'India', ANSA, taken from: https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/mondo/2024/02/21/mitsotakis-grecia-e-la-porta-di-ingresso-a-europa-per-lindia_e4d5533c-15ed-4f02-a26d-5a90d34d165d.html
- Eddiy M. (February 2034), Small Businesses Sound Alarm Over Weakening German Economy, The New York Times, taken from: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/world/europe/small-businesses-sound-alarm-over-weakening-german-economy.html
- Patrono M., Vedaschi A. (2022), Donald Trump e il futuro della democrazia americana., Bocconi University Press EGEA
- Calabrò A., Ferrera M., Marchetti P., Martinelli A., Padoa-Schippa A. Profeta P. (2022), Essere Europa, a cura di Piergaetano Marchetti, La Nave di Teseo
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