On April 24th, the French President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected for the next five years, defeating his “historical” rival Marine Le Pen, gaining respectively 58.54% and 41.46% of the votes at the ballot.
Macron is the third president (after Mitterrand and Chirac) to be elected for a second mandate, and this hadn’t happened since 2002. Given the recent European crisis, from migrants to Brexit, from Covid-19 to Ukraine, being re-elected in such context was not certainly easy; however, these elections were characterized by a 28.01% of abstention, the highest since 1969, and they highlighted a deep crack within the country. If on the one hand Macron’s remarkable result is also due to the peculiar nature of the party he founded, La République En Marche, which is a post-ideologic formation that mixes progressive instances with liberal ideas, succeeding in gaining all moderate and centrist consensus, on the other hand, for this same reason, the extreme alignments got stronger and stronger. These elections saw indeed the disappearance of the traditional parties, the Socialist and the Republican, which now count less than 7% together, leaving space to radical positions: 57.8% of the voters at first turn chose a radical party. The far-right is continuously growing: if in 2002 Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, scored a mere 18% in the presidential run-off, and in 2017 Marine, defeated by Macron, gained 34% at the ballot, this time, even in defeat, the Rassemblement National has never been so close to winning the presidency. On the other side, the anti-NATO, Eurosceptic far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, gained 22% of consensus ath the first turn (third place), and he is now trying to reunite the left-wing area under his leadership.
This polarization can be seen also in the fracture between cities and rural areas and in the harsh tones of the pre-election public debate, in which Macron was called “le president des riches” by Mélenchon and Le Pen. The President framed the run-off vote as one for or against tolerance, freedom and the European Union, while Marine Le Pen called it “a choice between the people and the globalist Parisian elite”.
Given this context, Mr Macron publicly recognized these divisions and the fact that he owes his victory in part to those who wanted to keep out the far-right. He admitted: “Our country is beset by doubts and divisions…Today’s vote requires us to consider all of the hardships of people’s lives and to respond effectively to them and to the anger expressed.” Macron has understood that he must regain the contact with people, and therefore he declared a reconciliation, and a “new method” of consultative government: “We can’t resolve everything from là-haut (on high).”
The next five years may be hard for Macron, and the first crucial appointment is behind the corner: June 12thand 19th National Assembly elections.
For the first time after 2000/2001 reform, the specter of a possible “cohabitation” after National Assembly elections reappeared. Before the reform, presidential mandate lasted seven years, while the Assembly remained in charge for five years. In such legislative context there was the possibility (it happened three times) of a political misalignment between the Presidency and the Assembly (which maintains a fiduciary relation with the Prime Minister and the government). Cohabitation is a power-sharing situation: according to the Constitution, domestic politics and internal affairs are clearly taken in charge by the government, while the President presides the council of ministers (but loses his influence on it), signs decrees and ordinances, and has the power of dissolving the Assembly (but no more than once a year). This latter power, can act as a Damocles sword over Prime Minister’s head, preventing him of doing wrong moves; in the meanwhile, however, the President would be incapable to carry on his political agenda. Therefore, cohabitation may transform into a sort of paralysis.
Concerning national defense and foreign affairs, the cohabitation brings some ambiguities: on the on the one hand, according to the Constitution, the head of the State is the “the head of armies”, “presides over the councils and higher committees of national defense”, holds nuclear codes, designates ambassadors and negotiates and ratifies international treaties; on the other hand, however, the government "has the administration and the armed forces at its disposal" and "the prime minister is responsible for national defense”. Therefore, due to this ambiguity, according to Professor Dominique Rousseau, during the past cohabitations it has been customary to choose ministers of defense and foreign affairs who pleased both men in power, to avoid frictions. The constitutionalist warned also that "In the past, there were consensuses in those areas, but today there are real differences, on the role of the European Union, or on the war in Ukraine. This seems much more unstable and could cause problems in the event of a cohabitation”.
However, 2000/2001 reform set National Assembly elections few weeks after Presidential ones and it equalized the duration of their mandates, making cohabitation situations very hypothetical; since 2002 elections, therefore all elected presidents have had the majority at the Assembly.
At the moment, Macron’s formation holds 60% of the seats in the Assembly, but he suffered a decline at recent presidential elections (from 66.1% of 2017 to the present 58.54%), and, according to an IFOP-Fiducial survey, 68% of registered voters want "the opposition to represent a majority of Assemblée National members and impose a cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron.” In this situation, Jean-Luc Mélenchon can see an opportunity: after the first turn of presidential elections, 42% of his voters, as he asked, backed Macron (while only 17% backed Le Pen), but now, the far-left leader is trying to capitalize his consensus; on 7th May he launched an electoral alliance for Assembly elections, the “New Popular, Environmental and Social Union”, which gathers Socialists, Greens and other left-wing formations, asking the French to "elect him prime minister”.
On the other side, the far-right galaxy seems disorganized and not ready for the elections: after the critics and jabs that characterized the pre-presidential elections, Eric Zemmour is lowering the tones against Marine le Pen. Probably worried to collect another failure, he publicly proposed her an alliance: “Take our hand, not for us, but for France. Let's do it. Together”, but the RN has not broken the silence yet.
In any case, looking at numbers and forecasts, it seems unlikely that Macron will be defeated (giving birth to a cohabitation), but he may lose the absolute majority, needing then to enlarge his coalition and to find a compromise figure as a Prime Minister, with the risk of being forced to renounce to his ambitious reforms. Moreover, even if he manages to keep the control of the Assembly, he may encounter a hard opposition on the streets and among the population, as already promised by Mélenchon. Therefore, he will have the delicate task to appease and reconciliate a fractured nation and to secure a stable legacy, trying to arrest the growth of extremist formations, to avoid 2027 elections to be hotter than 2022 ones.
Sitography
Ferrari, Cuocolo, Pollicino, & Vedaschi. (2019). Diritto Pubblico. Egea.
France’s re-elected President Emmanuel Macron wants to govern differently. (2022). The Economist. https://0-www-economist-com.lib.unibocconi.it/europe/2022/05/07/frances-re-elected-president-emmanuel-macron-wants-to-govern-differently
France’s re-elected president prepares for a tough second term. (2022). The Economist. Retrieved May 12, 2022, from https://0-www-economist-com.lib.unibocconi.it/europe/2022/04/30/frances-re-elected-president-prepares-for-a-tough-second-term
Jean-Luc Mélenchon devises plan to become Emmanuel Macron’s main opponent. (2022a). Le Monde. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/04/27/jean-luc-melenchon-devises-plan-to-become-emmanuel-macron-s-main-opponent_5981705_5.html
Jean-Luc Mélenchon devises plan to become Emmanuel Macron’s main opponent. (2022b). Le Monde. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/04/27/jean-luc-melenchon-devises-plan-to-become-emmanuel-macron-s-main-opponent_5981705_5.html
A new alliance boosts the left ahead of France’s parliamentary elections. (2022). Https://0-Www-Economist-Com.Lib.Unibocconi.It/Europe/2022/05/14/a-New-Alliance-Boosts-the-Left-Ahead-of-Frances-Parliamentary-Elections. Retrieved April 13, 2022, from https://0-www-economist-com.lib.unibocconi.it/europe/2022/05/14/a-new-alliance-boosts-the-left-ahead-of-frances-parliamentary-elections
Vince Macron: la Francia nel segno della continuità. (2022, April 24). ISPI. https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/vince-macron-la-francia-nel-segno-della-continuita-34762
Comments