EUROPEAN UNION: WHO IS THE NEXT TO JOIN?

By the time the European Coal and Steel Community was founded, it only had six members. Today the European Union, successor of the ECSC, has twenty-seven members and keeps on growing. Considering the latest applications, it is hard to predict how big it will be in a decade. However, joining the Union is a long process, and the last three applicants have many challenges ahead in the road to membership.

Ever since its creation, membership to the EU has always been very desirable for the countries that are located in proximity. However, the EU requires a rather complex procedure with many conditions to be fulfilled by the candidate countries. Today, these requirements are gathered under the Copenhagen Criteria.

In the first place, in order to be a candidate, it is imperative that the country has a stable government that respects human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, and the rule of law (Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union, 2007). After fulfilling these, some arduous economic and administrative requirements come into play, not to mention recognising the supremacy of EU law and a long-term social integration. All these criteria mean that being a part of this privileged club of European States is not easy feat, and definitely comes at a cost.

In the last month Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, the “Association Trio”, have made official applications to join to the Union. Joining the EU was already a part of their political agenda; however, some circumstances distinguish these applications from the past ones.

By far the biggest problem with Ukraine’s application is the ongoing war in its sovereign territory. Despite the President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen’s optimistic statement for Ukraine’s membership, accession to the EU is a time consuming and arduous undertaking that also requires unanimity among the current members (European Commission , 2022). As of today, eight Member States have officially expressed positive opinions on the accession of Ukraine (Reuters , 2022), while the Netherlands and Spain approached the matter in a more sceptical way, underlining the fact that the complex process of accession to the Union would not be helpful to Ukraine at the moment (Baltag, 2022). Besides the war, Ukraine has a high record of government corruption (Transparency International , 2021), is the second poorest country in Europe (The World Bank , 2021), and has a population of 44 million, which is enough to make a considerable effect on the demographics of the Union.

Moldova and Georgia’s applications, just like Ukraine’s, are also seen as a reaction of fear due to Russia’s military intervention (Gehrke, 2022), and they too have requested a “fast-track” admission to the Union, with the President of Moldova stating “If some decisions need time, others must be taken promptly and decisively, using the opportunities offered by the changing landscape of the world” (Necsutu, 2022). However, there are some potential dealbreakers with Moldova’s application. Firstly, Moldova is an economically weak country with the lowest GDP in Europe and suffers from a high level of corruption. Secondly, an autonomous region of the country, Gagauzia, has rejected the possibility of accession to the EU twice with a referendum. Lastly, the breakaway State of Transnistria causes a certain level of instability in the country.

Georgia had previously declared that they would apply to the EU in 2024, firmly believing that a hasty initiative would do more damage than good, yet Georgia decided to submit its official application the 3rd of March. Although located in the European continent, Georgia is approximately 1000 kilometres away from the nearest EU member, and is in a zone of never-ending turmoil, the most recent of which is the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Moreover, the internal affairs of the country are highly influenced by Russia, which peaked in 2008 when Russia occupied a part of the Georgian territory in a mission to aid the self-declared republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Previously, some countries with similar problems have managed to join the Union; Bulgaria and Romania were both suffering from relatively high corruption, Cyprus had a major dispute over half of its territory, and Estonia and Latvia have a considerable Russian minority, thus, within the sphere of influence of Russia. Therefore, these problems are not dealbreakers on their own, however they certainly do not help. Another issue is that things have changed since the accession of these countries, with some Member States being more hesitant on accepting new members to the Union due to several “bad experiences”[1] of the past decades (Eisl, 2019). One of the most sceptical in this regard is France, which had previously vetoed the accession of Kosovo believing that the Union shall be more careful in accepting new members, and certainly reform its accession procedures. In the light of these, it is doubtful whether the new applicants will ever succeed in joining the Union.

Bibliography

Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union. (2007). Article 2, Article 49.

Transparency International. (2021). Corruption Perceptions Index. https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021 Accessed on 07.03.2022

European Commission . (2022). European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations. https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-policy/steps-towards-joining_en Accessed on 07.03.2022

Reuters . (2022, February 28). Presidents of 8 EU states call for immediate talks on Ukrainian membership.https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/presidents-8-eu-states-call-immediate-talks-ukrainian-membership-2022-02-28/ Accessed on 09.03.2022

Baltag, D. (2022, March 3). Ukraine’s EU membership: still some way off. Social Europe : https://socialeurope.eu/ukraines-eu-membership-still-some-way-off Accessed on 09.03.2022

Transparency International . (2021). Country data: Ukraine . https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/ukraine Accessed on 06.03.2022

The World Bank . (2021, October 5). Overview of the Ukraine's Economy .https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#1 Accessed on 09.03.2022

Gehrke, L. (2022, March 3). Georgia, Moldova follow Ukraine in applying to join EU.https://www.politico.eu/article/georgia-and-moldova-apply-for-eu-membership/ Accessed on 10.03.2022

Necsutu, M. (2022, March 7). In Moldova's east, Maia Sandu's EU membership bid divides opinion. Euronews : https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/03/07/in-moldova-s-east-maia-sandu-s-eu-membership-bid-divides-opinion Accessed on 09.03.2022

Figure 1: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3182933-ukraine-georgia-moldova-express-joint-vision-for-development-of-eastern-partnership.html