German federal election and its results: an introduction
German federal elections took place on 26th September, marking a new era for Germany. It was the first election in 16 years without Angela Merkel, who has continuously held the office of Chancellor since 2005.
The Socialist Party, SPD, narrowly won the election, whereas Merkel’s conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union, which has been at the helm of German politics for decades, suffered its worst election result since World War II (Amaro, 2021). However, SPD came first by a very slight margin, hence it will take time before a new ruling coalition is formed and the new Chancellor appointed.
German election and the European Union
Germany, as one of the founding nations of the EU and most importantly as Europe’s biggest economy, has long had a strong influence on European policymaking.
Throughout the Merkel years, Germany was often seen as a force of moderation and conciliation to “keep the Union together” (Buras & Puglierin, 2021). During Merkel’s time as Chancellor, the European Union has faced, among other things, the 2008 global financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis, migration crisis and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, other than the rise and strengthening of Eurosceptic forces and the Brexit referendum that led to the UK withdrawal from the Union (Amaro, 2021).
Seen often as the great unifier and the crisis manager (Buras & Puglierin, 2021), despite some criticism and opposition, for 16 years Angela Merkel has shaped the dynamics of EU policy and has been deemed as a beacon of stability in a more and more polarized Europe (Rankin, 2021; Chadwick, 2021).
Not surprisingly, the German election will probably have profound repercussions for EU policy, as the future ruling coalition and Chancellor will decisively influence whether the country will maintain its position as a leading power in Europe in forthcoming years. Most importantly, the incoming coalition will have to prove the European Union can meet the great challenges of the future.
Post-Merkel Germany and the EU: some key policy areas
The first challenge post-Merkel Germany and the European Union will have to face will be to stand up for European values and principles, to protect democracy and the rule of law, threatened by the rise of autocratic systems, such as in Hungary or Poland (Buras & Puglierin, 2021).
The second great challenge will be contributing to set the new agenda for EU policy. A key area where the new coalition could drive some significant changes is the Green transition (Russack & Gros, 2021). The climate crisis is forcing governments to rethink their economics and social agenda, resulting in the European Green Deal, a set of policy initiatives by the Commission with the objective of reaching climate neutrality by 2050. To achieve this, a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 is currently under discussion by European lawmakers. Germany, with its prominent auto sector, will have a key role to play, especially if the Green Party takes part in the ruling coalition. Another major problem the next German government will have to grapple with at the eurozone level will be the completion of the Banking Union, introduced during the debt crisis but hindered by financially conservative euro nations, including Germany (Amaro, 2021). The eurozone needs also to update its fiscal and debt rules, which are currently on hold until at least 2022, since the European Union triggered the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, allowing countries to loosen fiscal and budgetary constraints (Nobile, 2021). It is unclear at the moment what will be Germany’s position in fiscal and economic matters, as Germany is known for its support of tight fiscal policies and SPD leader and current German Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, has more or less directly stated that a radical change in German stance on EU’s debt and fiscal rules is unlikely (Amaro, 2021). Furthermore, the incoming German government will need to deal with the next steps of the Next Generation EU programme, which has represented a real turning point for the European Union and European integration. The NGEU was thought of as a one-off measure in reaction to the health and socio-economic Covid-19 crisis, but it is debated whether similar measures could become permanent financial instruments of the Union and whether they can be designed to incentive reforms and investments and modernize the European economy (Odendahl, 2021).
Finally, German contribution to shaping a common EU foreign policy will also be of significant relevance, both to pursue common interests and to defend the EU role at the international level (Odendahl, 2021).
In general, the European Union expects Germany to remain a reliable partner, a beacon of stability and, most importantly, a guide to further integration within the Union and among the euro economies. In this regard, the European Parliament President David Sassoli, commenting on the results of the vote, declared that “after this historic crisis, there is no time to lose: Europe needs a strong and reliable partner in Berlin to continue our common work for a social and green recovery” (Amaro, 2021).
A conclusion: the latest developments and the “traffic light coalition”
Whether Germany will meet European Union expectations is hard to say yet and much will depend on the next ruling coalition and the next Chancellor. According to the latest developments, the most likely scenario would be a three-way coalition, the so-called “traffic light coalition”, from the colours symbolizing the composing parties: the red of the SPD, the yellow of the FDP and the green of the Greens. In the last few days, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the liberals have agreed to start exploratory coalition talks, meaning a possible appointment of SPD’s leader, Olaf Scholz, as Chancellor (Euronews, 2021; BBC, 2021). Nevertheless, negotiations are going to be difficult because of the differences between the three parties.
Meanwhile, analysts are discussing how much change a new German government will bring to European politics. But to answer this question and to see if – and to what extent – the new government will impact European Union policy, we will probably have to wait a few months.
Bibliography
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