On the evening of November 10 Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia have signed an agreement to end military conflict over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the deal "incredibly painful both for me and both for our people".
This region, internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, has been under the control of Armenian forces since 1994, at the end of a separatist war. After sporadic clashes during the years, a large-scale fighting erupted on September 27. Six weeks and 5.000 deaths later, a ceasefire agreement was concluded: unfortunately, it hasn’t been welcomed by Armenian citizens, as protesters stormed government buildings, reportedly looting the prime minister's office, and asked the Parliament to void the truce. On the contrary, Azerbaijianis are jubilant about the signing of the deal and the consequent territorial gains, with festive crowds celebrating in the streets of the capital Baku.
Although Azerbaijan won from a military point of view, the true political winners are Russia and Turkey. The latter brokered the truce, therefore appearing as a peacemaker, the true master of the game. Moreover, the peace deal allowed Putin to send two thousand Russian peacekeepers to the region, where they are staying for five years to guarantee the stability of the borders. The former has provided a decisive contribution in terms of armaments and support to Baku, establishing Ankara’s influence in Caucasus.
Turkey’s incursion in the Post-Soviet States of the Caucasus mirrors Russian entry into the war in Syria in 2015. Only time will show the geopolitical repercussions of this growing tension between two countries and their strongmen leaders.
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